শুক্রবার, ২৯ জুন, ২০১২

Debt crisis: live

Quote Greece never broke the agreement. They are talking of about 70,000 recruitment and it's only around 20,000.

Greece is only allowed to take on one worker for every ten that are laid off. The government admits that last year it went over by 1,057 employees, but said that it had been let off by the troika:

Quote The total number of permanent employees who were hired in the public sector during 2011 amounted to 9,057, a figure which is obviously far removed from the data that was reported in the press. There was an excess in the maximum number allowed for recruitment, by 1,057. The troika was informed in a timely manner.

17.25 We've just come across some pictures of a rather unusual protest outside the EU summit in Brussels. The group is attempting to stop EU leaders cutting back on their development aid payments. By wearing Lycra jumpsuits.

16.43 European markets have shut down for the day, downbeat as expectations for a resolution at this week's EU summit fade.

The FTSE 100 has dropped 0.56pc, France's CAC lost 0.37pc and Germany's DAX slipped 1.27pc.

The largest fallers on the FTSE 100 were the banks, drive lower by fears that the Barclays Libor manipulation scandal would eventually cause costs across the sector.

Barclays dropped by 15.53pc, HSBC slipped 2.58pc, Lloyds lost 3.9pc and RBS finished the day off by 11.45pc.

16.18 More from IMF spokesman Gerry Rice on the IMF's willingness to listen to Greece. He told a press briefing:

Quote The objectives of the program as agreed remain the basis for those discussions [...] But as we've said before, if the new government has ideas on how those program objectives can be achieved, then we're open to those discussions as we are indeed in any of our programs that we support.

15.46 Update on the markets:

FTSE 100 -1.3pc

CAC -0.6pc

DAX -1.5pc

IBEX +0.1pc

MIB +0.1pc

DOW -1.3pc

15.30 IMF will send people to Cyprus next week for initial talks with authorities on a programme. But Cyprus said that its low corporate tax rate is not up for discussion with European officials when thrashing out terms of a bailout from its eurozone partners.

IMF also says it will listen to Greek government's views on bailout programme. Says Greece can manage its budget for 28 days without the next loan.

15.13 Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered his government to put aside billions of dollars in next year's budget to protect the country's vulnerable economy in case of a new economic crisis.

Quote We must take into account any scenarios for the world and Russian economies and have the instruments and possibilities to react. Therefore I ask you to put into the coming year's budget enough reserves to realise anti-crisis measures, if, of course, the need arises.

15.08 Jorg Asmussen, member of the executive board of the European Central Bank, says fiscal pact and ESM ratification must be finalised quickly. Sees no risk for Germans' savings.

15.03 Irish finance minister Michael Noonan is hoping for upside in growth in the second half of this year but this depends on Europe. Adds that country is in a "rolling" negotiation with Troika on bailout programme. Says European countries that are running budget surpluses should be spending.

14.54 BREAKING NEWS...

EU officals have said EuroGroup Jean-Claude Juncker will stay on in his current role, while EFSF chief Klaus Regling will become head of the new permanent ESM bailout fund.

14.52 And here is the very dapper Belgian Prime Minister Elio Di Rupo arriving at the EU summit in Brussels:

14.46 US stocks have opened lower as EU leaders hold a crucial meeting on the eurozone crisis and ahead of a Supreme Court ruling that could strike down key parts of President Barack Obama's healthcare reform.

Ten minutes into trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 104.75 points (0.83pc) at 12,522.26.

The S&P 500 index dropped 9.94 (0.75pc) to 1,321.91, while the tech-rich Nasdaq lost 28.58 (0.99pc) to 2,846.74.

14.36 BREAKING NEWS...

Spanish parliament approves 2012 austerity budget.

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's government has vowed to cut the deficit from 8.9pc of output last year to 5.3pc this year - but even the IMF has said Spain is likely to miss the target.

14.24 Herman Van Rompuy, President of the European Council:

He adds: "Reviving growth in our economies and creating jobs, especially for young people, requires immediate action. Restoring confidence in our currency calls for stability today and a credible perspective for the future. That is why both our work on growth and jobs and our reflection on the future of the Economic and Monetary Union are crucial at this stage."

14.20 Prime Minister David Cameron has voiced frustration that progress on tackling the eurozone crisis was advancing at a snail's pace but stressed Britain's place was on the sidelines.

Speaking at the EU Summit, he said:

Quote I know people are frustrated that these summits keep happening and not enough decisions are made. These are hard decisions for the eurozone countries to make and we should be encouraging them to go ahead.

"Of course, we're saying to the eurozone countries, they do need to do more things together to strengthen their currency and make sense of their currency but Britain is going to stay out of that.

"We want Europe to work for us as a single market, as a place where we trade, as a place where we cooperate and I'm going in there to make sure we get the safeguards to make sure that can keep happening.

14.17 EU officials say leaders expected to discuss activating the eurozone's bailout funds to buy Spanish and Italian bonds in the primary market.

14.12 Quick update on the markets:

FTSE 100 -1.1pc

CAC -0.5pc

DAX -1.5pc

IBEX +0.4pc

MIB +0.2pc

14.06 Spain retaining their European Championship football title would benefit the whole of the country at a difficult time in its history, the national coach Vicente Del Bosque has said. Spain are through to Sunday's final after bating Portugal last night on penalties.

Quote If we can do it... I believe that it will be beneficial not just for football but for the country in general. It will send some signals to the country that we are going in the right direction. And if the success can be transferred into society, that would be marvellous.

13.59 A Greek bank worker has plunged to his death from the Acropolis, in what police said could be the latest in a growing number of suicides caused by economic suffering in the debt-ridden nation.

The man was in his 40s and worked at Greece's troubled state-owned agricultural lender ATEbank. He took a break shortly after starting work in the morning but never returned, police said.

13.38 Telegraph's Bruno Waterfield is with Cameron at the EU Summit:

13.33 BREAKING NEWS...

US initial jobless claims (first time claimed unemployment benefits) at 386,000 in the past week (analysts expected 385,000). This is a fall from 387,000 the previous week.

13.30 David Cameron arrives at the EU Summit:

13.09 French PM Francois Hollande says he sees "very rapid" aid for states with market problems.

Speaking on his way to a crucial EU summit in Brussels, Hollande said there was a need for more "solidarity" in dealing with the eurozone's debt crisis.

Meanwhile, Dutch PM Mark Rutte says the only way forward for Spain and Italy is to continue with reforms. Adds that he is looking for a gradual approach to the transfer of national powers, calls for shared European oversight of markets and banks and opposes transfer of national policies

13.07 Outgoing Greek finance minister Giorgios Zannias is to be appointed chairman of the the National Bank of Greece.

12.53 Tight security at the EU summit:

12.44 The Telegraph's Bruno Waterfield is at the EU Summit:

Who is going to blink first? That?s the question as EU leaders start to roll up in Brussels.

Italy and Spain are screaming with the pain of soaring borrowing rates and are sounding the alarm over their ability to get finance from the markets.

Italy wants some ?solidarity? in return for pushing through controversial pension and labour reforms, Rome wants help to bring down spreads, currently at 6pc.

Spain is warning that if borrowing costs remain at around 7pc it will go bust. Madrid wants its eurozone bailout paid directly to banks, helping its balance sheet and thus driving down borrowing costs.

But Germany in the person of Angela Merkel is not for blinking ? as the Handelsbatt, the German business paper, headline proclaimed this morning: ?Nein! No! Non!?.

12.39 European Commission Vice-President Olli Rehn hopes the EU Summit will take the decision to help stablilise markets in the short term.

12.36 Bill Gross, co-founder of Pimco, believes default or reflation are the only cures for the debt crisis.

12.30 Italian Treasury's chief economist says PM Mario Monti's proposal at EU Summit to cut bond spreads is "probably not achievable" and Europe "shouldn't necessarily expect very big results from event".

12.25 George Osborne has said the FSA uncovered "systemic failures at the heart of the financial system".

Follow our live blog on the fallout from Barclays' fine for Libor manipulation. Barclays' share price has fallen more than 10pc today.

12.20 After an earlier rejction of eurobonds Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble says Berlin is willing to negotiate, but must have fiscal union as a pre-condition. Urges eurozone members to use the EFSF to buy bonds.

Spanish PM Rajoy hopes Summit will take decisions to help lower Spanish borrowing costs.

12.08 We are hearing reports that two medical orderlies with a stretcher and oxygen tanks have been led to the EU Summit.

12.08 Irish finance minister Michael Noonan says one of the main topics of EU Summit will be how to get ITalian bond yields below 4pc - they are currently above 6pc.

12.05 Time for a quick update on the markets:

FTSE 100 -1pc

CAC -1.1pc

DAX -1.6pc

IBEX -0.5pc

MIB -0.6pc

FTSE being dragged down by banking shares after the Barclays fine.

12.00 We are running a seperate live blog on the fallout from Barclays' fine for Libor manipulation. David Cameron has said that the bank has "serious questions to answer".

11.58 Ernst & Young ITEM Club on the UK economy:

Quote A recession may have been averted, but this year?s growth is likely to be lower than last year?s depressing 0.7pc. The ITEM Club?s forecast sees growth at just 0.4pc in 2012 and not returning to trend until 2014.

Central bankers have again saved the day with their unconventional monetary policies. The ECB?s LTROs have bought more time for the euro, while in the US and the UK, QE2 has turned investor sentiment from "risk off" to "risk on". Central banks have now poured trillions of dollars and euros and a quarter of a trillion pounds into the markets to help their economies get out of recession. They cannot do much more to stimulate growth for fear of reigniting inflation, but they are there in the background if a new crisis emerges.

11.52 Merkel has arrived at the EU Summit:

She says the EMU growth package is at the centre of today's summit.

11.47 France's new external trade minister Nicole Bricq has said that reaching reciprocity in international trade relations would be her top priority, especially with emerging economies.

"Within multilateral institutions as well as in bilateral ties", we must "promote trade that is equitable and fair, marked by a seal of reciprocity. I insist on that in this first intervention," she told a trade show audience.

11.45 Reporters await Angela Merkel's arrival at the EU Summit:

11.13 Irish Deputy Prime Minister Eamon Gilmore says his country will want equal treatment on bank debt if Spain wins concessions. Spain has asked the EU for up to ?100bn in order to bail out its banking sector.

11.11 EuroGroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker says he is seeking progress on short-term measures at EU Summit.

Surely we need less short-term measures and more long-term ones, Mr Juncker?

10.57 Finnish PM joins Germany in rejecting eurobonds. Should be an interesting EU Summit today. Most of Europe pushing for eurobonds as a solution to debt crisis.

PM adds that EU leaders will discuss buying Spanish and Italian bonds. FInland suggests that vulnerable eurozone countries should issue covered bonds, and the EFSF/ESM could stand ready to intervene at such auctions to make them a success.

Meanwhile, Swedish PM Reinfeldt says his country would oppose a proposal for an EU banking union.

10.44 Former MPC member Danny Blanchflower on UK GDP:

10.40 Greece's national bank says impaired loans in first quarter at 15.5pc, and the pace is accelerating. Adds that bank mergers are needed.

10.38 European Central Bank Governing Council member Christian Noyer says Europe has arrived at a crucial moment and must advance more towards federalism with a stronger budgetary union.

He adds that Greece must improve its credibility. Central banks have already done a lot but government cannot rely on them to do everything. EU/IMF Troika will visit country early next week.

10.33 And a quick update on Barclays being fined for Libor manipulation. Both Boris Johnson and Ed Miliband have this morning called for an investigation.

10.31 Quick update on the markets:

FTSE 100 -0.7pc

CAC -0.8pc

DAX -1.3pc

IBEX -0.1pc

MIB -0.5pc

10.18 Italy has sold ?2.9bn 2022 bonds at yield of 6.19pc versus 6.03pc on May 30.

Sells ?2.5bn 2017 bonds at yield of 5.84pc versus 5.66pc on May 30.

Bid to cover 1.28 versus 1.40. So, not a huge jump in borrowing costs but demand has fallen.

10.12 We are hearing that members of banking union IBOA are protesting outside the AIB AGM, threatening strike action over planned pay and pension changes. AIB chairman David Hodgkinson said home loan impairments "are in total 16pc".

10.06 Advert on the London Underground for conference call company Powownow:

10.00 Eurozone economic sentiment falls to 89.9 in June from 90.5 in May (lowest since 2009). Consumer sentiment falls to -19.8 from -19.3. Preliminary CPI +0.2pc.

09.49 The Greek Parliament has been sworn in.

Meanwhile, president Karolos Papoulias and the Greek delegation have flown to the EU Summit in Brussels using economy class. His two-way ticket is estimated to cost ?500 to ?600.

Papoulias has reportedly also delivered to European Union leaders a letter from Prime Minister Antonis Samaras seeking adjustments to the country?s debt deal with its international creditors.

09.36 BREAKING NEWS...

UK GDP Q1 figure confirmed at -0.3pc. Services +0.2pc, industrial production -0.5pc and construction -4.9pc. Government spending +1.9pc (highest since 2005), household spending -0.1pc. Bank of England expects borrowing costs for mortgages and household loans to rise markedly in Q3. Forecasts sharp reduction in availability of high loan-to-value mortgages.

The ONS said fourth-quarter 2011 UK GDP revised down to -0.4pc.

Ranvir Singh, chief executive of the market analysts RANsquawk, said:

Quote Waiting for these numbers was much like watching an England penalty shootout. A grim sense of foreboding, flecked with the odd, irrational splash of hope.

"In the end the confirmation that, yes, it really was that bad, came as an anticlimax. No amount of extenuating circumstances can mask the economy's serious weakness in the first three months of the year. All eyes will now turn to the Bank of England to see how it will respond. But the sages of the MPC are far from united in their approach.

09.32 Italian employers' lobby Confindustria says country is "in abyss" and that crisis is hurting economy as if there was "a war". Cuts 2012 GDP forecast from -1.6pc to -2.4pc and 2013 from +0.6pc to -0.3pc, sees debt to GDP ratio at 125.7pc (121.3pc previously) this year.

09.26 Markets falling on rumours that no debt crisis plan will be finalised at today's EU Summit. FTSE 100 down 0.6pc now.

09.09 Ireland is undergoing the costliest banking crisis of any advanced economy since the Great Depression, according to The Irish TImes, citing a working paper prepared by two researchers within the International Monetary Fund.

Luc Laeven and Fabi?n Valencia said Ireland held ?the undesirable position? of being the only country currently ranked among the 10 costliest banking crises since the 1970s, when measured in terms of fiscal cost, increases in public debt and output losses.

09.02 Euro falls to three-week low against the dollar of $1.2432.

08.56 German unemployment edges up from 6.7pc to 6.8pc in June, extra 7,000 claimants this month.

08.34 Spanish 10-year bond yields have jumped seven basis points to 6.99pc this morning. And they have now passed 7pc.

08.20 Trader Cigolo:

The source also says Germany is sceptical about dveloping yet another instrument to solve Italy's problems. Adds that Germany warns against "exaggerated panic-mongering" over very high interest rates in Spain and Italy. Troika report on Greece likely to take weeks.

08.10 ECB powers will reportedly be discussed at the EU Summit today.

08.04 Spanish inflation has slowed to the weakest in three months in June as the euro area?s fourth-largest economy sank deeper into its second recession since 2009.

Consumer prices, based on European Union calculations, rose 1.8pc from a year earlier, compared with a 1.9pc gain in May

08.02 European markets are open.

FTSE 100 +0.1pc

CAC +0.1pc

DAX +0.1pc

IBEX flat

MIB +0.3pc

However, in Asia the Shanghai Composite fell 1pc, erasing 2012 gains.

Japan's Nikkei jumps 1.65pc.

07.58 In the latest version of his daily email, Telegraph Head of Business Damian Reece has focused on Barclays being fined for Libor manipulation:

Barclays will continue to face a storm of protest today over its Libor scandal. Political pressure, at the moment coming from Labour and Liberal Democrats, and industry indignation in general is mounting for Bob Diamond, the Barclays chief executive, to resign.

As of last night Diamond was defiant, insisting he was clearing up previous mistakes. At some point the bank will have to discuss the situation with its shareholders and take soundings which would sensibly be done sooner rather than later. Obviously all the breaking news, including reports of all the latest reactions and interviews this morning on the story, are live on our website.

07.55 German IFO Institute sees economy entering a "weak phase".

07.49 The ECB's Peter Praet has added that a bailout of Spain's banks comes with strings attached and Madrid's efforts to cut its deficit must be monitored closely.

He told the Financial Times Deutschland:

Quote Spain will receive the money from the bailout fund in tranches, with payment depending on whether Spain meets the conditions. Spain has no classical aid programme. But given the interconnectedness between the situation in the banking sector and state finances, we must also keep an eye on the development in the Spanish state budget.

07.37 Moody's has downgraded 11 Brazilian financial institutions. The ratings agency said it had cut the standalone bank financial strength ratings (BFSR) or lowered the standalone baseline credit assessments (BCA) of eight Brazilian financial institutions by one to three notches.

The long-term global local currency (GLC) deposit ratings or issuer ratings of 11 financial institutions were downgraded by one to two notches, while the deposit rating of one bank was confirmed. The short-term deposit ratings of six banks were downgraded by one notch.

Banks affected include Banco do Brasil, Banco Sanfra SA, banco Santander (Brasil), HSBC Bank Brasil - Banco Multiplo SA, Banco Bradesco, Banco Itau BBA SA and Banco Itau Unibanco SA.

07.30 Spain is considering buying its motorways in the Madrid region for ?1 plus debt and introducing tolls, according to Cinco Dias.

07.19 European Central Bank policymaker Peter Praet says he is very skeptical of Italian PM Mario Monti's plan for the ECB to buy bonds part-guaranteed by the ESM bailout fund. Praet says plan would contravene ECB mandate. He adds that Spain should first look to shareholders for bank aid.

07.12 BREAKING NEWS...

UK house prices have fallen 0.6pc in June compared with May, and 1.5pc from last year. Analysts expected a 0.1pc rise. Average home price now ?165,738.

Russell Quirk, founder of low cost online estate agents eMoov.co.uk, said:

Quote With the economy back in recession, confidence low and the eurozone on the brink, it's no surprise that house prices remain under pressure. On an annual basis, we're back to the bad old days of 2009.

"The end of the stamp duty holiday may have contributed to the weakness in prices but it is by no means the biggest driver. That's the lack of confidence to commit to a purchase.

"One reason why prices aren't falling further is simple supply and demand. There aren't enough properties for people to live in and to a certain extent that puts a glass floor under prices.

"As for policymakers providing support, the jury is out. We've had all kinds of schemes over the past few years, none of which has made any material difference to credit availability. Why should we believe them this time around? Homeowners shouldn't hold their breath on prices, as we're in it for the long haul."

07.00 The euro-region economy may only show an ?anaemic? recovery in 2013 after shrinking this year as leaders struggle to find the balance between policies that foster growth and the need for budget cuts, Ernst & Young International has said.

The euro-area economy will contract 0.6pc in 2012, before stabilizing with 0.4pc growth projected next year, Ernst & Young said in its Eurozone Forecast. The report also estimates 1.7pc growth in 2014 and 2pc in the two following years.

Mark Otty, managing partner for Europe, Middle East and Africa, said:

Quote Any kind of recovery is dependent on eurozone political and financial leaders seizing the initiative over the next few weeks to head off the pressing problems in Spain, Italy and Greece. The difficult balance between growth and austerity has to be found with neither option at the exclusion of the other.?

06.54 The two-day EU Summit starts today in Brussels. We have a detailed schedule of events on our website. Our man in Brussels, Bruno Waterfield, will be at the event and, as usual, we'll have the latest news here. All eyes will be on German Chancellor Angela Merkel - will she budge on eurobonds?

Chris Cummings, chief executive of TheCityUK, said:

Quote The UK cannot remain on the sidelines in discussions about banking union. While we are supportive of much needed positive action from eurozone countries to answer the on-going crisis, banking union raises important questions for the single market. In particular, the UK needs to be vigilant about technical rules which could impact on the wholesale market based in London.

?EU Leaders should recognise the essential contribution of the financial services sector to the economic recovery. Supporting bank lending to small and medium-sized enterprises and promoting non-bank sources of finance is essential to growth and recovery.

06.50 Lots of economic data to look forward to today. In the UK there is the final GDP revision for the first quarter (9.30am) and Nationwide house prices (7am). In Europe, Germany releases unemployment figures at 08.55am. In the US, jobless claims are out at 1.30pm. Also an Italian 10-year bond auction at 10am (UK time).

06.43 The lady's not for turning. No, not that one, but Mrs Merkel, as Jeremy Warner explains:

No, no, no, she says, to any solution to the eurozone crisis that looks like debt pooling, as if echoing the words of Britain's former prime minister all those years ago on the perils of monetary union.

The German Chancellor is bluffing, and doesn't really mean it, the markets reply, but if this is indeed only a game of poker, she's certainly got nerves of steel. There will be no joint and several guarantees for euro area debt "as long as I live", she told a private meeting of German MPs this week. If that's bluff, then it's one from which politically she'll struggle to escape.

The parallels with Britain's own iron lady are striking, though obviously not exact. Mrs Thatcher pledged to use the British veto to block monetary union. I'm going to stand on the track and stop that train, she said. So she stood on the track and was duly run over by the EMU locomotive.

Looking at the mess into which the eurozone has since descended, many Europeans must wish she had succeeded, but it was not to be. With Mrs Thatcher disposed of, Britain instead negotiated an opt out from a project it believed itself powerless to stop.

06.40 Nein, nein, nein! Pleas from Spain and Italy for financial aid were dismissed by Angela Merkel yesterday on the eve of a critical summit in Brussels. Bruno Waterfield reports:

Germany's Chancellor angrily rejected desperate pleading by Italy and Spain as a Franco-German rift over eurozone debt sharing threatened to unravel efforts to find a fix for the single currency at a meeting of European leaders on Thursday.

Before flying last night to Paris for emergency talks with Francois Hollande, the French President, Mrs Merkel told German MPs that instead of more cash the eurozone needed to step up debt reduction and economic reforms.

"I fear that at the summit we will talk too much about all these ideas for joint liability and too little about improved controls and structural measures," she said.

06.30 Good morning and welcome back to our live coverage of the European debt crisis.

Debt crisis live: archive

Source: http://telegraph.feedsportal.com/c/32726/f/568796/s/20caaf77/l/0L0Stelegraph0O0Cfinance0Cdebt0Ecrisis0Elive0C9360A2820CDebt0Ecrisis0Elive0Bhtml/story01.htm

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